Outside a metro station in DC a couple of months ago, I noticed a group of people with signs, pamphlets, and earnest expressions. They were advertising the “good news” that the end of the world was soon: May 21, in fact. They’ve been getting some more attention since, and since May 21 is this coming Saturday, I figured it’s about time I wrote it up.
According to this particular sect of Christianity, Saturday is the date predicted for Judgment Day, when all human souls get a thumbs-up or thumbs-down from the Great Reviewer In The Sky. This leads to an event called the “Rapture,” which is when all the “good”* people will ascend to heaven, and every one else gets “left behind” on Earth.
(* where “good” is defined as those who subscribe to the particular interpretation of Christian religion that God considers “correct.”)
Such a point of view is a delusion, without evidence, and it will not happen on Saturday. This sort of thinking could be viewed as a harmless, fodder for cartoons and nothing more, but I would argue that (a) it’s disconcerting on a deeper level and (b) it’s actively harmful for society.
Last weekend, NPR aired a story on the Christians who see themselves as messengers of the Apocalypse. The fellow who is the source of this particular promulgation of the date of the Rapture is Harold Camping, a Christian radio broadcaster. Camping serves up the Rapture with a geological flavor:
On May 21, “starting in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth,” he says.
Cool! Magnitude 10+ earthquakes on the hour for 24 hours straight, marching around the globe? At what latitude in each time zone, I wonder? I ask this facetiously, since I’m sure Camping is imagining American latitudes; I doubt his awareness strays further south than Texas, or further north than Michigan. He’s almost certainly not predicting a big quake in the Peruvian Andes if it won’t be felt in New York. I won’t even ask about the triggering mechanisms, and how they relate to the heavenly ascent of worthy souls, since I’m sure such factual details aren’t part of Camping’s model. I’ll surely be disappointed if I expect coherence from a loon like him.
I like predictions like his, however, for silly as their foundations are, they are testable. I look forward to watching that hour roll by this weekend, and waiting for the apoplectic apocalyptic believers to explain the lack of megaseismicity. Their delusions can at least serve to amuse the rest of us. Some people are even planning a big party. Any excuse, I guess… “It’s six o’clock somewhere.”
Camping and his irrational followers also predict, according to Camping’s web site WeCanKnow.com, that while the faithful will be raptured away on May 21, five months hence, on October 21, the world itself will end. Those of us lucky enough not to be deluded with “notions of rapteur” will have the planet to ourselves for five months before the end. This sounds like a sweet deal from my perspective, a planet improved by the glorious removal of one of its parasitic, hate-inducing faiths. Of course, it’s only one religion that would get vacuumed off during the Rapture; I’ll still have to put up with the other equally-certain faithmongers of other sects.
Mr. Camping clearly has a big problem with reality, but that’s not his only issue. There’s also the Bible itself. Three different places in that book, it says that people won’t know when the day of judgement is coming. The Bible says living humans can’t know. Camping places his faith in that document as vested with authority, yet he’s saying that it is wrong about the Rapture date’s unknowability. With his numerological hocus-pocus, Camping is claiming that his authority outweighs that of the scriptural pages from which he derives his numbers. Hence the “We can know” bit. While I appreciate Camping’s interest in figuring things out for himself (as opposed to merely listening to an authoritative source), I’m afraid his technique is ludicrous and laughable.
So where did his May 21 date come from? Pharyngula detailed some of the preposterous details in February, quoting this article from the San Francisco Chronicle which explores the basis of Camping’s “calculation”:
The number 5, Camping concluded, equals “atonement.” Ten is “completeness.” Seventeen means “heaven.” Camping patiently explained how he reached his conclusion for May 21, 2011.
“Christ hung on the cross April 1, 33 A.D.,” he began. “Now go to April 1 of 2011 A.D., and that’s 1,978 years.”
Camping then multiplied 1,978 by 365.2422 days – the number of days in each solar year, not to be confused with a calendar year.
Next, Camping noted that April 1 to May 21 encompasses 51 days. Add 51 to the sum of previous multiplication total, and it equals 722,500.
Camping realized that (5 x 10 x 17) x (5 x 10 x 17) = 722,500.
Or put into words: (Atonement x Completeness x Heaven), squared.
Stunning, right? How anyone finds this compelling is beyond me.
But should we expect a rational foundation for such an important and momentous belief ? I would reckon not — that these mathematical machinations are window dressing, and lie nowhere near the root of Camping’s belief. Reason and rapture are mutually exclusive; oxymoronic. Camping’s tools are flim-flam and wishful thinking; he’s not a brilliant maverick but a sad crank. Why this particular combination of numbers, with these particular mathematical operations? No justification is given, because it’s a matter of faith, numerology, and pseudoscience. Humanity is asked to take their word for it.
But… that’s exactly what some people do. Also from the NPR piece:
“Knowing the date of the end of the world changes all your future plans,” says 27-year-old Adrienne Martinez.
She thought she’d go to medical school, until she began tuning in to Family Radio. She and her husband, Joel, lived and worked in New York City. But a year ago, they decided they wanted to spend their remaining time on Earth with their infant daughter.
I’m all for spending time with your kids. And I’m all for credulous idiots not going to medical school, so that the rest of us are not at risk of them masquerading as medical professionals. But this is why I see ‘end-is-nigh”ism as not merely injurious to the lives of the individual dupes, but injurious to society as well. If one thinks that the world is about to end, then why bother saving for your kids’ college fund? Why bother eating healthily? Why pay your mortgage? Why cut your carbon emissions? Why give back to your community, your planet, or your family? If they’re all doomed, then they aren’t worth your attention. Why protect the Earth’s biosphere if you think the Earth itself will soon cease to exist? ‘End-is-nigh”ism is the ultimate in short-term thinking. It’s bad for society and for the planet.
I find it worrisome on a reflective, psychological level too. These people believe this insane thing, and it worries me that they cannot see it, and have no wish to test it. I wonder how many similar delusions our brains accept without scrutiny — how much of what we each individually perceive as “reality” is in fact nothing of the sort? It’s obvious to us that Camping is wrong, and that the world is unlikely to end on Saturday evening, but which of our own perceptions are not so obviously wrong? My “outsider” perspective allows me to see the lack of logic and evidence for Camping’s delusion, but clearly he cannot. He is blinkered by the provincialism of his own limited perspective and lack of interest in testing its validity. I find this disconcerting, because I wonder if I too suffer from a Camping-like blinkered perspective, perhaps for something minor, but perhaps even for something important. How could I know?
The only way I can see to avoid “going Camping” is to be explicit in our predictions and our models for viewing the world, and to let others critique them with logic, reason, and evidence. While they do this, we must strain not to hold too emotionally to our ideas when we are shown to be wrong. We need to keep our minds open to being swayed by a tight argument or compelling evidence. We must, in other words, subscribe to learning through empiricism, logic, and skepticism. In other words: reality via science.
Unconstrained by the need for a coherent world view or validation from their peers, Camping’s followers say of Saturday’s Rapture prediction that the “Bible guarantees it.” Is that guarantee good for a refund? Because on May 22, I’d be pleased if all of Camping’s deluded followers could all turn their Bibles in and get their lives refunded.
While I doubt that much will happen on May 21, I’m shocked by the tone of this post. As a fellow and long-time AGU member, I do not expect this type of content on an official AGU blog.
Mr. Mankoff,
I appreciate you taking the time to express your dissatisfaction. It should be noted that this blog, like the other seven independently-authored blogs on the AGU Blogosphere, are not official representations of AGU, but are independent in content and editorial decisions. AGU only hosts us, and may opt to stop doing so whenever they feel our contributons are no longer in keeping with the mission of the organization. Which brings us around to the tone and content of this blog post: if rational people don’t call irrational people out on harmful beliefs, who will? Society is harmed by people like Harold Camping, and I think it’s fair for me to say so in strong terms.
Callan Bentley
I totally agree with Callan.
Science cannot stay enclosed to journals and doctoral thesis. If nobody raises the voice against the arguments of charlatans and lunatics, who will do it? To use ancient mythology for predicting the future is plainly absurd.
Superstition kills. How many times a “End of our days” arrives and some people commits suicide? Science is not a toy for an educated elite. Science is the daily understanding of reality, and in my opinion, nonsense and irrational beliefs are clouds in a sunny day.
I am personally tired of listening to normal people (not a radio predicator) about how we are harming the planet, how it answers back killing us in quakes, how a giant planet approaches us, how the world with end on Saturday or next year…
It is tiring, I doubt I am the only one seeing that…
—-
About the post itself, I think the section “about” of the AGU blogs makes it crystal clear.
Regards,
J.
@Jorge, thanks for the link to “About”. It provides evidence for my initial reaction.
“Bloggers and commenters will be courteous. We all want to advance the conversation about Earth and space science, and we will be more effective if we keep things civilized. Yes to honest and passionate debates, no to personal attacks.”
This post is not courteous and may or may not, depending on the reader, be considered a personal attack.
Anything at all “may or may not, depending on the reader, be considered a personal attack.” Anything. This sniffling over “tone” while ignoring the importance of the content is ridiculous.
Notice that’s not a personal attack. As for courtesy, well, it’s quite as courteous as your responses. If you find my tone impolite, perhaps you should reconsider yours.
And then go tone troll elsewhere.
Hi Dana,
I apologize for not mentioning the importance of content, which I do think is important. Psuedo-science should not masquerade as science. I also recognize that personal attack interpretation is very subjective.
However, you address the courtesy of your comments and my comments, but not the original post. It simply does not seem to meet the AGU guidelines.
PIty the world end, because I really wanted FC Barcelona to beat Manchester United in the soccer European Champions League… It is next week!
Great article, Callan.
(Incredible that fully in the XXIst century our society keeps superstition in such a healthy state).
By the way… once this delusion is proven to be wrong, what these peoples will believe in? When the next call for the end of the world happens?
Crazy world.
Used to burn young girls and rip out people’s hearts, now they buy billboards. I think that is progress.
It would be nice if this happened, then nearly half of the US Congress and some of the disgusting ignorance and irrationality that plagues this country lately would hopefully disappear.(for a while least) Thanks Callan for your post.
I agree with your comment above that this subversive and mentally sick nonsense is far from harmless and merits the harsh criticism.
I agree that you need to stand up to such non-scientific nonsense in strong terms. Pseudoscience *is* harmful, from faith healers to people who pretend to talk to the dead to psychics to “natural healers” to this end of the world nonsense.
Great post, Callan.
Having been raised in a region where such beliefs (if not these specifically) were commonplace, when I was younger I tried to take a laissez-faire attitude toward these ideas. If folks wanted to sit around in their own ignorance, that was their business. In more recent years I’ve seen that was a mistake, especially as these groups have grown in economic and political power and are trying to enforce their beliefs on the rest of us (in hindsight, it was always obvious this would happen). Calling out such ridiculous views should be seen as an obligation of all scientists and other rational people. I would suggest that throughout history, every event that has resulted in the improvement of the human condition has been the result of scientific problem-solving. Allowing superstition a foothold can result in nothing but a step backwards.
As for AGU, even setting aside the abstract idea of defending science and rational thought, I would think that pointing out that earthquakes are not caused by an angry god is a core part of its mission.
Given the nature of these ideas, I would say the tone of the original post is completely appropriate. Thanks, Callan, for posting it.
I think a post like this is perfectly fine for an AGU-hosted blog. As Callan and some of the other commenters are saying, if scientists don’t call this stuff out, who will? Besides, it’s not as if Callan blogs like this all the time. In fact, one of the great things about blogs is how the lack of an editor filter leads to genuine, passionate discussion instead of playing-it-safe reporting. I’m all for it.
I once worked with a guy who, about 1996, told me that, from the bible, he had calculated the end of the world for sometime in 2002. I asked him why he was working instead of spending his time making himself right for god. He never talked religion to me ever again. (We parted ways in 2000)
Thank you Callum for saying what any rational person is actually thinking. I can’t imagine what their reaction will be when they are still waiting for the rapture gone midnight. There was a very funny sketch by the late Peter cook that this reminds me of. Sorry if it breaks any copyright laws but I’m sure Peter would have approved of it’s use in this case.
Jon :
How will it be, this end of which you have spoken, Brother Enim?
Omnes:
Yes, how will it be?
Peter :
Well, it will be, as ’twere a mighty rending in the sky, you see, and the mountains shall sink, you see, and the valleys shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Jon :
Will the veil of the temple be rent in twain?
Peter :
The veil of the temple will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Alan :
And will there be a mighty wind, Brother Enim?
Peter :
Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by…
Dudley :
And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the mountains of the earth?
Peter :
No – it will not be quite as mighty as that – that is why we have come up on the mountain, you stupid nit – to be safe from it. Up here on the mountain we shall be safe – safe as houses.
Alan :
And what will happen to the houses?
Peter :
Well, naturally, the houses will be swept away and the tents of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the heavens and on earth – and serve them right!
Alan :
And shall we be consumed?
Peter :
Con..sum..éd? No, we shall not be consuméd – we shall be up on the mountain here, you see, while millions burn, having a bit of a giggle.
Jon :
When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Omnes :
Aye, when will it be – when will it be?
Peter :
In about thirty seconds time, according to the ancient pyramidic scrolls… and my Ingersoll watch.
Jon :
Shall we compose ourselves, then?
Peter :
Good plan, Brother Pithy. Prepare for the End of the World! Fifteen seconds…
Alan :
Have we got the tinned food?
Dudley :
Yes.
Peter :
Ten seconds…
Jon :
And the tin-opener?
Dudley :
Yes.
Peter :
Five – four – three – two – one – Zero!
Omnes :
(Chanting) Now is the end – Perish The World!
A pause
Peter :
It was GMT, wasn’t it?
Jon :
Yes.
Peter :
Well, it’s not quite the conflagration I’d been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow… we must get a winner one day.
I think this is a blog post that illustrates just *one* highly publicized (and contentious) aspect of pseudoscience – in the process demonstrating how harmful ‘scientific misinformation’ can be to society. Absolutely appropriate.
Great post, and most apropos for any science blog. That these fools are making seismic predictions, it’s even more relevant to an earth science blog. In fact, I thought that you were kind of gentle on the deluded religionists.
Sometimes, once an individual is so steeped in their dogma that reality is beyond reach, mock and ridicule is all that is left to inform others of the absurdity of that dogma… regardless of what tone trolls or accommodationists think.